The AI Class Just Got Cheaper Than The S&P 500. Nobody Sold A Share.
Forward P/E on the AI Core Profit Basket fell from 20.7x to 18.9x in one week, dropping below the S&P 500's ~24x forward for the first time. AMD FY26 EPS +108% WoW, GEV +64%, APP +52%. The denominator did the work.
Panic Selling
Selling at the bottom is the most expensive mistake retail investors make. Here is what the data says — and the simple system that prevents it.
The Picks-And-Shovels Math Just Got Cheaper. The Software Bill Just Got Richer.
Semis segment forward P/E dropped 16 turns to 37.6x. Software and Data expanded to 73.2x. Same basket, same week, same prices. The earnings refresh moved through the picks-and-shovels layer first because that is how the cash cycle works.
The Dunning-Kruger Effect
The least-skilled investors are usually the most confident. Here is how the Dunning-Kruger effect plays out in markets — and why humility wins long-term.
Why Your Brain Is Your Worst Investment Advisor
Loss aversion, recency bias, overconfidence — the cognitive biases that wreck portfolios, and how a passive index strategy short-circuits them all.
The AI Class Just Got 4 Turns Cheaper. Here's What Mean Reversion Looks Like.
The 35-name AI basket compressed 4.4 turns of trailing P/E this week to 40.5x. ARM, PLTR and MRVL led the move down. Mean reversion math: the wider the move up, the harder the snap back.
The Company That Owns Itself
Vanguard is owned by its funds, which are owned by you. That one structural quirk is why your VTI expense ratio is 0.03% instead of 1.5%.
FOMO Is the Most Expensive Emotion in Investing
FOMO drives chase-buys at exactly the wrong time. Here is what fear of missing out actually costs investors — and the boring playbook that beats it.
The GameStop Saga
How the GameStop meme-stock frenzy actually played out for retail investors — narrative bias, social proof, diamond hands, and what VTI investors were doing instead.
The AI Class Trades At Four Different Prices. Pick The One You Mean.
The headline AI Class median P/E sits at 44.9x trailing and 21.2x forward this week. The interesting story is segment dispersion: Hyperscalers at 14x forward, Software/Data at 63x — a 4.4x gap inside one theme.
The WallStreetBets Hall of Shame: What YOLO Trading Really Costs
1RONYMAN’s $57K box spread debt. analfarmer2 turning $600K into zero at 19. The GUH guy. Not stupid people — human people doing exactly what behavioral finance predicts.
When the Multiple Flinched
The AI Class trailing P/E dropped 6.6 turns in a week to 44.7x — right onto the 39x AI Class of 2026 benchmark line. Breadth held at 77%, but top-5 concentration ticked up to 64.0%.
Rebalancing: The Free Lunch of Investing
30 minutes per year. Mechanically buys low and sells high. Proven to improve risk-adjusted returns. The most underrated discipline in personal finance — explained.
Factor Investing Explained: Value, Size, and Momentum
SMB, HML, RMW — demystified. The five factors with real academic backing, why AVUV combines value and profitability, and how to implement factor tilts without a PhD.
How 1999 Actually Looked
The AI Class trailing P/E jumped 9 turns in a week to 51.3x — a new monitor high. The 1999 chart overlays look compelling until you check what was in the denominator.
REITs: Should Real Estate Be in Your Index Portfolio?
12.7% annualized from 1972-2023, genuine diversification benefits, meaningful dividend income — but VTI already owns 3-4% real estate. Here’s the honest case for VNQ and AVRE.
Bonds Are Boring (And That's Exactly Why You Need Them)
Nobody posts about their bond allocation going up 2%. But in 2008-2009, bonds kept investors from panic-selling at the bottom — which turned out to be worth a lot more than any hot stock pick.
The Denominator Does Most of the Work
The AI Class sits at 42.2x trailing P/E and 21.8x forward P/E on the same day. That 20-turn spread isn’t a quirk — the denominator is doing all the valuation work.
The Lazy Portfolio: How 3 Funds Can Beat Most Hedge Funds
8.14% annualized over 30 years. Three funds. Zero Bloomberg terminals. The Boglehead three-fund portfolio isn’t for beginners — it’s the destination serious investors arrive at after trying everything else.
International Diversification: Do You Really Need It?
Japan peaked in 1989 and didn’t recover for 35 years. US investors making the same 100%-domestic bet deserve to understand what they’re wagering on.
Why Earnings Revisions Matter More Than Earnings
A 14.6-point Q1 2026 revision — 2x the 10-year norm — explains the entire gap between the AI Class’s 39.9x trailing and 21.9x forward P/E. The bear case has shifted from ‘multiples look high’ to ‘revisions have to reverse.’
Avantis vs. Vanguard: A Deep Dive Into the ETFs We Actually Recommend
Vanguard built the index fund revolution. Avantis added factor tilts backed by decades of research. Here’s when to use each — and why the answer for most serious investors is both.
The Small Cap Value Premium: Why Tilting Your Portfolio Pays Off
Two Nobel Prizes worth of research, a 1.6% historical premium, and the AVUV implementation that captures it.
Good, Better, Best: Which Portfolio Tier Is Right for You?
Three legitimate portfolio strategies — from one fund to globally diversified factor tilts. The right one is the one you'll actually hold.
The 'Just Make More Money' Guy Is Selling You a Lottery Ticket
The viral bell-curve meme is half right. Income matters. But retail options have an 80%+ loss rate — and people selling "systems" for $497 are running a lottery, not a strategy.
One Fund to Rule Them All: The Case for VTI
3,600+ companies, a 0.03% expense ratio, self-cleansing cap weighting. The only ticker most investors ever need.
We Tried to Build a Buffett Stock Screener (And What We Learned)
Replicating the Buffett-Munger process in a spreadsheet — what a screener can do, where it breaks, and why Bessembinder's 4% rule still favors owning the index. Free Google Sheet inside.
Time in the Market Beats Timing the Market — Here's the Proof
Missing just 10 of the best trading days in 20 years cuts your return in half — and 76% of those best days happen in bear markets. The data is brutal and clear.
The 4% Rule: Your Ticket to Never Running Out of Money
Annual Expenses × 25 = Your FI Number. Where the math comes from, why it has held across 70+ years, and how to apply it to your own retirement plan.
Wall Street Wants You Confused (And Broke)
Complexity is the business model. Jargon is the moat. Here's how the financial industry profits from confusion — and the five questions that defang any sales pitch.
F-You Money: Why Financial Independence Changes Everything
F-You Money is the threshold where your investments buy back your freedom to say no. The math is 25x your annual spending — and every step toward it buys real options.
Compound Interest: The Eighth Wonder of the World
Returns earn returns, which earn more returns. Over 40 years that math transforms ordinary savings into extraordinary wealth. Here's why starting early matters more than investing well.
Dollar-Cost Averaging: Your Secret Weapon Against Volatility
The evidence-backed, boring system that removes market timing from investing. Why automatic monthly contributions beat trying to guess the top.
New Tool: See If Your Stock Picks Actually Beat VTI
We built a free, browser-based calculator that replays every trade in your brokerage history as if those dollars went to VTI on the same day. Beta testers wanted.
The Power of Doing Nothing: How Inactivity Beats Hyperactivity
Fidelity's best investors were dead. DALBAR says active investors lose 3.6% per year to their own behavior. The most profitable move is usually the one you don't make.
Why Index Funds Beat 90% of Professional Fund Managers
79% of active large-cap funds underperformed the S&P 500 in 2025. The SPIVA data, Buffett's $1M bet, and the math of fees all say the same thing.
The Market Always Goes Up — 100 Years of Proof
Since 1926, the S&P 500 has returned ~10% per year. Over every 20-year rolling period, stocks have been positive 100% of the time. Here's what the data says.
Buy. Hold. Chill. — The Only Investment Strategy You'll Ever Need
Investor A obsesses over every market move. Investor B buys index funds and ignores the noise. Guess who wins?
Q1 2026 Portfolio Check-In: Stay the Course
Markets pulled back 8% from January highs. Here's why that's perfectly normal — and why we're not changing a thing.
VTI vs. VOO: Which Is Actually Better?
The differences are smaller than you think. We break down total market vs. S&P 500 indexing with data.
Review: "The Simple Path to Wealth" by JL Collins
The book that started it all. Why this 2016 classic is still the best first investing book you can read.
Paul Merriman's 2025 Best-in-Class ETFs Explained
Why Avantis dominates Merriman's latest recommendations, and what changed from previous years.
The Psychology of Staying the Course
Why your biggest investing risk isn't the market — it's your own behavior. Lessons from behavioral finance.
The Small-Cap Value Premium: Real or Dead?
Skeptics say the value premium has been "arbitraged away." The data tells a different story.